Oscar Watch: Can You Outguess the Editor?

The Oscars are this Sunday. And you may or may not know this, but your faithful editor is a huge movie buff. And I’ve seen all… well, most… well, some of this year’s nominees, and I’m ready to make my predictions.

Now, I don’t want to brag, but I have what I would describe as an uncanny ability to correctly predict these things. My Oscar ballot has been 100 percent dead on every year for the past 10, mainly because I fill it out on the Monday after the ceremony. But not this year! This year, I’m going to make my choices known early.

And I’ve decided to do like Ebert does and make it a little contest. If you’re one of the first five people to outguess me, I’ll give you free Patch swag. Free Patch swag! Even attendees at the real Oscars won’t get free Patch swag.

Here are the rules:

Below, you’ll find my picks in the top six categories. I’ve arrived at these guesses through a complex system, which involves checking what the other awards organizations have already handed out, talking with fellow movie buffs, and then closing my eyes and picking randomly.

If you think you can outguess me, leave a comment on this story with your picks in these categories. You have until the ceremony starts at 6 p.m. Sunday night to guess. If you’re one of the first five people to get more picks right than I do, you win. (No prizes for being exactly as right as I am – you have to do me at least one better.)

There are more standard rules for these things, and you can read them here, but that’s the basics. You can find a list of Oscar nominees here. And here are my picks:

Best Picture: The Artist. The clear front-runner, this thing’s won just about every award it’s been up for so far, and audiences seem enchanted by it. I saw it this weekend, and I'm more certain now than ever that it's going to win.

Best Actor: George Clooney in The Descendants. This is a bit of a guess, since it could easily go to Jean Dujardin for The Artist, but I think Clooney has built up enough good will (and his performance was definitely terrific) that he’ll take it. The Descendants probably isn’t going to win anything else, either.

Best Actress: Viola Davis in The Help. I know, I’m betting against Meryl Streep, which is never a smart thing to do. But I think it will pay off. People loved this movie, and they loved Davis in it. And Streep was reportedly the best thing about the otherwise lackluster The Iron Lady (which I also haven’t seen yet).

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer in Beginners. A couple of reasons: Plummer’s won just about every award he’s been up for this year, and he’s never won an Oscar. Which is ridiculous, since he’s a national treasure. And he’s 82, so there’s no telling how many more chances he’ll have. This is Plummer’s year.

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer in The Help. Going by the other awards this year, Spencer has this locked down. Which may make things harder for Viola Davis in the Best Actress category, but I think people will want to honor The Help, and it sure isn’t going to get any of the other awards.

Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius for The Artist. Same thing here – Hazanavicius has won award after award for his work on this film, and I think he’ll take this over Alexander Payne and Martin Scorsese.

All right, it’s your turn. Leave your guesses in the comments below. I’ll make the popcorn.